When humanity falls under crisis: Afghanistan in 2021 and beyond

"Afghanistan is probably facing the worst humanitarian disaster we've ever seen. We have never seen an economic shock of that magnitude and we have never seen a humanitarian crisis of that magnitude", says Abdallah Al Dardari the resident representative for the UNDP in Afghanistan. To abandon the Afghan people now would be a historic mistake — a mistake that has been made before with tragic consequences.”

Thousands of families have fled from Taliban offensives and sought refuge elsewhere. Photo: Sayed Khodaiberdi Sadat/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

According to Watson Institute’s Costs of War Project, the 20 years of war that Afghanistan experienced, resulted in the death of 176,000 people out of which 46,000 were civilians. As horrible a picture as this presents, the predictions of the World Health Organization somehow outshine these numbers. Statistics by the WHO show that 1 million Afghan children under five years will die this winter and another 2.2 million will succumb to severe malnutrition.

For some time now, an imminent humanitarian catastrophe has been predicted by relief organisations. Come 2021 and the catastrophe has really arrived.

97% of the 38 million population risk being impoverished, while starvation and the need for food have afflicted some 23 million people. The economy of  $20 billion stands at the precipice of collapsing to $4 billion.

"Afghanistan is probably facing the worst humanitarian disaster we've ever seen. We have never seen an economic shock of that magnitude and we have never seen a humanitarian crisis of that magnitude", says Abdallah Al Dardari the resident representative for the UNDP in Afghanistan. To abandon the Afghan people now would be a historic mistake — a mistake that has been made before with tragic consequences,” said Deborah Lyons, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative and Head of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA).

The already flailing country was hard hit when in August, the Taliban suddenly overthrew the government and seized power in its hands. Consequently, governments from all over the world cut access to international funds and froze the Afghan central bank's $10 billion in assets to prevent the 'hardline Islamists' from accessing it. As a result, the public finances collapsed and many service providers went unpaid. The country's banking system underwent immense pressure. The militant group of Afghanistan's de facto rulers, are yet to be accepted or recognised, by the international community.

Such a situation has left the Afghan people baffled. 'They feel abandoned, forgotten and punished by circumstances that are not their fault'.

Unfortunately, this punishment was meted out to all, irrespective of whether they were a citizen of Afghanistan or not. The death of photojournalist Danish Siddiqui who is also a Pulitzer Prize winner is a painful reminder of the same.

Danish Siddiqui was the star photojournalist for Reuters based in New Delhi, who decided to go and cover the happenings of Afghanistan.“If we don’t go, who will?” he said.

On arriving at the base of the Afghan Special Forces, he was put together with several hundred elite commandos who were given the task to flush out Taliban fighters. On July 13, a mission to rescue a policeman surrounded by insurgents was carried out. Siddiqui was a part of it and they succeeded. While he was returning, his convoy came under fire from rocket-propelled grenades. Three days later on 16th July, an attack from the Taliban would kill Siddiqui and two Afghan commandos. His death brings the age-old question of, how safe are journalists?

If foreign nationals paid such a price, it is only natural that the Afghani population will be under immense pressure and crisis.

The UNDP's Al Dardari said "the international community can do plenty on the humanitarian front and to help keep essential services afloat. We are talking now immediate, short-term interventions while keeping our eyes on the medium and the long term".

The U.N. has initiated plans to urgently get some cash into the hands of everyday Afghans. A trust has been established which provides cash-for-work projects and grants to small businesses. This is primarily aimed at offering temporary income to people without jobs so that the local infrastructure could be re-established. Furthermore,50 million euros ($57 million) has been pledged by Germany and the European Union has offered 1 billion euros.

The Costs of War Project, reports an expenditure of about $2.3tn in Afghanistan by the US since 2001. Still, schooling for girls, healthcare provisions, and integration of women into the workforce, has received a severe blow due to the Taliban's attitude and lack of western support. This regression may have serious repercussions for the west. For instance, a huge refugee crisis may dawn upon Europe by next spring. Western reluctance may result from the 'fear of validating Taliban rule and misuse of donor funds '. However, the emergent crisis needs a solution for this political deadlock. Global cooperation and international long-term assistance strategies may be the only saving grace.